ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF MEDIA NEWS BACKGROUNDS ON INFLATION IN RUSSIA
Given the growing number and variety of information flows, the influence of the media on public sentiment, the news background, as a key element of media information, directly affects economic decisions, and the analysis of its dynamics in real time can significantly increase the accuracy of economi...
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| Главные авторы: | , |
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| Формат: | Статья |
| Язык: | English |
| Опубликовано: |
MSU Publishing House
2025
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| Темы: | |
| Online-ссылка: | https://dspace.ncfu.ru/handle/123456789/31673 |
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| Краткое описание: | Given the growing number and variety of information flows, the influence of the media on public sentiment, the news background, as a key element of media information, directly affects economic decisions, and the analysis of its dynamics in real time can significantly increase the accuracy of economic forecasts and models. The article studied the impact of the news background contained in media publications on the prices and inflation level. The methodological tools proposed by the authors make it possible not only to analyze inflationary processes, but also to predict their dynamics taking into account the media context. Processing 147 thousand news articles by using a pre-trained neural network from Microsoft made it possible to select 3.5 thousand news about inflation and prices, dividing them into “proinflationary” and “disinflationary”. To form training and test samples, a connection to the GigaChat neural network is implemented. The inflation tonality of the marked news was simulated by pre-processing using the TF-IDF method and using logistic regression, Naive Bayesian classifier, Random Forest and CatBoost, as well as by additional training (fine-tuning) of neural networks based on the BERT architecture, pre-trained in Russian. The methodological basis was made up of methods for parsing html sites, natural language processing (NLP), deep neural network architecture, and regression algorithms. As a result, we have the inflation background index contained in the Russian media publications, with high accuracy describing the “shock” events in the economy. The findings can be used to fine-tune economic models and create forecasting tools, highlighting the importance of media content in assessing the economic situation. |
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